Highlights:
- Santiment warns that a new Bitcoin all-time high may take time.
- The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index rose to greed levels, reflecting market sentiment.
- Despite optimism, markets often move against crowd expectations, risking a bearish shift.
Bitcoin began a bull run in the crypto market two weeks ago, reaching a peak of $66,480, a level last seen in July. This two-month high has positively impacted the broader altcoin market. Numerous other crypto assets have also regained high levels not seen in three months.
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Market analysts predict that Bitcoin could approach the long-lost $70K range, possibly reaching a new all-time high beyond $73K. However, on-chain analytics platform Santiment warns that a new all-time high may not be achievable for Bitcoin soon.
Bitcoin All-time High May Remain Elusive
In an X post on Sept. 30, Santiment stated that those anticipating a new Bitcoin all-time high may need to wait until the crowd “slows down their own expectations.” The analysis examined social sentiment data, showing that there are 1.8 bullish Bitcoin posts for every bearish one.
This indicates extremely bullish crowd sentiment, with many expecting further price increases. However, Santiment noted that markets typically move against the crowd’s expectations, which may not favor an uptrend. This indicates that although many are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching the $70K level soon, a potential bearish shift could happen, causing Bitcoin to reverse all its recent gains before eventually rebounding to higher levels.
📊 If you're awaiting Bitcoin's new all-time high, it may need to wait until the crowd slows down their own expectations. There are currently 1.8 bullish posts toward BTC for every 1 bearish post. Markets historically always move the opposite direction of crowd's expectations. pic.twitter.com/ZxDxalgmzb
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) September 29, 2024
BTC Fear and Greed Index Shifts from Extreme Fear to Greed Levels
Sentiment has grown highly bullish over the past two weeks, with BTC prices rising steadily by 14%, from under $58,000 on Sept. 17 to above $66,000 on Sept. 28. Additionally, BTC is set to achieve its best September performance since inception, with gains of approximately 12% so far.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, has risen to greed levels with a rating of 61 on Monday, Sept. 30. Just weeks ago, the index dropped to 22 on Sept. 6, marking one of its lowest levels in the past year during a period of ‘extreme fear.’
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 61 ~ Greed
Current price: $65,653 pic.twitter.com/9lOs3K4iWr— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) September 30, 2024
Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,400, approximately 13% below its March all-time high of $73,734, according to CoinMarketcap. Additionally, the asset experienced a sharp decline during early trading on Sept. 30, dropping nearly 2% over the past six hours as of this writing.
Bitcoin Price Likely to Experience Brief Correction
Bitcoin’s price rise contradicts early September expectations, where most predicted a bearish month. However, the Daily Active Addresses (DAA) divergence suggests that BTC could drop before trying to retest for $70,000.
The price DAA measures user engagement with a coin’s value. When price increases align with active addresses, it signals a potential rise in value. Currently, Bitcoin’s price DAA has fallen to -54.89%, indicating reduced market interaction. This decline suggests that the recent uptrend may be weak and signals a potential sell.
Additionally, the coin’s performance has affected holders’ profitability. On September 16, 79.92% of Bitcoin holders were in profit. However, according to the Historical In/Out of Money (HIOM) metric, which compares addresses making profits at various price ranges, 91.97% are now in profit. Historically, when this ratio reaches such levels, some holders tend to take profits, which can lead to a decrease in Bitcoin’s price.
For example, a similar situation occurred in July when about 93% of holders were in profit. A few days later, the percentage dropped to 78%. Another instance occurred on August 25 when the percentage was 88.35%, but the subsequent decline in Bitcoin price brought it down to 76.23%. Therefore, if history repeats itself, BTC may face a short-term drawdown.
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