Bitcoin Price Analysis – BTC Holds $68K, Breakout Could Target $100K

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is consolidating between $68,967 and $68,236 
• The odds are higher for a rally through the $68,967 resistance to $70k
• Rebound could be driven by a rally off the long-term liquidity zone

Bitcoin (BTC) has started the week in the red, after an attempted rebound over the weekend. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $68,419, a drop of 2.74% in the day. Trading volumes have also dropped intraday by 6.09% to stand at $37.63 billion. The drop in Bitcoin trading volumes at a time when the price is headed lower could be a signal that most panic sellers have left the market. 

This means only high conviction holders are in the market at the moment. As such, while the price is still in the red, the odds are high that a rebound could be on the horizon. There are several pointers to the possibility that the ongoing Bitcoin selloff is coming to an end. 

Bitcoin Trading at A Critical Long-Term Liquidity Zone

One of them is BTC’s price action on the long-term charts. On both the weekly and monthly charts, Bitcoin is trading at a central liquidity zone between $70880.62 and $58815.85. Last week, Bitcoin tried to reverse off this zone but failed over the weekend. The result is that Bitcoin could retest the $58,815.85 long-term support, before a strong reversal follows. At the same time, there is a chance that Bitcoin may not retest $58k and potentially rally off this liquidity zone back to its all-time highs. 

Such a possibility is already evident in the fact that intraday trading volumes are dropping. This signals that only long-term holders are remaining and that short sellers are afraid to take positions at such a critical zone. In this thin liquidity period where retail money is mostly staying away, a slight increase in buying volumes by a few whales could trigger a rally back to prices as high as $100k in a short time.

BITCOIN IS AT A HISTORICAL INFLECTION POINT

Glassnode’s “Supply in Profit/Loss” chart is flashing a signal we’ve seen before… right before major bullish expansions.

When a large majority of circulating BTC moves back into profit, structural selling pressure tends to decrease.… pic.twitter.com/yh14Zg3lmG

— NextGen (@NextGenVisionar) February 16, 2026

Saylor’s Conviction Likely to Continue Supporting BTC

Such a rebound is also supported by Michael Saylor’s hints that Strategy will continue to buy BTC. One of the most significant risks in the market so far has been that the Strategy would capitulate as the ongoing selloff continues to pile pressure on the company’s balance sheet.

Strategy recently bought $90 million worth of Bitcoin and will likely be buying more. Fear has been high that if the market pressure forces Strategy to start selling its over 700k Bitcoin, the price could drop exponentially. Some analysts believe such a drop could see BTC hit prices as low as $10k quickly. However, with the conviction from Saylor and the price trading at a long-term reversal level, Bitcoin could soon rally to new highs.

99th purchase and still buying the fear.
That’s not trading, that’s balance sheet conviction.
Every dip just adds more BTC to the corporate vault.

— Web3 Nick (@Web3NickBTC) February 16, 2026

Bearish Sentiment and Weak Retail Demand Cloud Bitcoin Outlook

Despite the potential rebound risks, BTC could be headed much lower. One of the risks facing Bitcoin is the prevalence of negative sentiment against cryptocurrencies. One of them is the perception that, going by the 4-year cycle, BTC could remain bearish for the remainder of the year.

There are also real pointers that the average investor’s interest in cryptocurrencies is waning. This is most evident in the fact that Coinbase’s revenues fell by 20% in Q4 of 2025, with a reported loss of $667 million. This goes to show that the money they generate from trading fees is in decline, a pointer to a market that is in short-term stagnation. 

Technical Analysis – BTC In An Intraday Consolidation

Bitcoin is currently in an intraday consolidation between the $68,967 resistance and $68,236. In the event that Bitcoin breaks out upwards through the $68,967 resistance, a rally to $70,817 could follow.

On the other hand, if there is a correction through the $68,236 support, a correction to $65,343 could follow in the short term. Of these scenarios, a bullish breakout to $70,817 seems likely as BTC is trading in a central liquidity zone on the long-term charts.