Analysts Predict Higher Approval Chances for Litecoin, Dogecoin & Solana ETFs in 2025, While XRP Lags

Highlights:

• Bloomberg analysts see rising approval odds for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs.
• Litecoin ETFs have a 90% approval chance, while XRP faces legal hurdles with the SEC.
• The deadline for SEC decisions on key crypto ETFs falls between October 2 and 18.

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have signaled that the odds of approval for new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are on the rise. Their analysis highlights pending applications for spot ETFs linked to Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin.

Analysts estimate a 90% approval chance for Litecoin ETFs, followed by Dogecoin at 75%, Solana at 70%, and XRP at 65% by year-end. They emphasized that these probabilities have surged in recent months, especially after Donald Trump’s presidential election win.

NEW: @EricBalchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We're putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now.

Here's the table with the odds and some other details: pic.twitter.com/xaXaNXLb0M

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025

SEC’s Stance on Crypto ETFs

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to clarify whether certain cryptocurrencies fall under securities or commodities regulations. Seyffart warned that XRP’s ongoing legal dispute with the SEC could slow down its ETF approval process.

It's our view. That until that WHOLE mess of litigation between Ripple/XRP and the SEC is settled and/or finished or has some sort of expected outcome etc etc — you likely won't see an ETF. The SEC needs to untangle that mess.

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025

Litecoin, launched in 2011 as a faster alternative to Bitcoin, utilizes a similar proof-of-work consensus mechanism. Seyffart and Balchunas noted that Litecoin’s path to SEC approval appears the clearest, as its S-1 and 19b-4 filings have been submitted and acknowledged. They also suggested that the SEC likely classifies Litecoin as a commodity. 

The analysts believe DOGE will be classified as a commodity, like LTC and Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the SEC has labeled SOL and XRP as securities in separate lawsuits. This may be why DOGE ETFs have a 5% higher approval chance than Solana, even though the SEC has not yet acknowledged DOGE funds’ 19b-4 filings.

Balchunas highlighted on Monday how significantly things have changed since Trump won the election last November.

Balchunas said:

“Keep in mind all of this stuff (except Litecoin which was always high) was <5% prior to election. So these are really good odds relatively speaking, and will likely grow the more we see these go through the typical process.”

The push for more crypto ETFs comes after strong demand for spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. Since their launches in January and July last year, they have recorded net inflows of $40.7 billion and $3.18 billion, according to Farside Investors. Seyffart believes a Litecoin ETF may not attract the same level of demand but could still be valuable for fund companies, even with as little as $50 million.

SEC Deadline Looms for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs

Seyffart’s chart shows that the SEC must decide on the Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs by a final deadline between October 2 and October 18.

So far, Canary, Grayscale, and CoinShares have filed applications for a Litecoin ETF. Cboe BZX has also submitted S-1 filings for XRP ETFs from Canary Capital, WisdomTree, 21Shares, and Bitwise. Additionally, Grayscale and Bitwise have filed S-1 forms for Dogecoin ETFs. Seyffart and Balchunas noted that Canary Capital and 21Shares had filed ETFs for Hedera and Polkadot but have not assigned approval odds yet.