Bitcoin LTH Supply Turns Positive as Holder Conviction Returns: CryptoQuant

Highlights:

• Bitcoin LTH supply has flipped positive as 308,000 BTC move into long-term hands.
• Holder profits and lower selling pressure now support a stronger Bitcoin market structure.
• Bitcoin STHs face rising unrealized losses of almost 20% amid market volatility.

Bitcoin’s long-term holder data has turned upward again, signaling stronger market conviction. Amidst the geopolitical tensions and their economic fallout, risk assets still face pressure, but some investors position for the long term. CryptoQuant data cited by market analyst Darkfost shows the 30-day average of coins entering the long-term holder group sits near 308,000 BTC.

This shift follows a deep contraction in late November, when the same metric fell to negative 674,000 BTC. Since then, investor behavior has changed, and fewer holders appear willing to sell into a choppy market.

Holding Behavior Starts to Outweigh Distribution Again

Darkfost said the indicator tracks UTXO age rather than fresh buying alone. Coins created six months ago join the long-term holder group if owners keep them unspent, which signals stronger holder conviction. Moreover, this change reflects a broader turn in behavior. More coins now move from short-term status to long-term status than leave through selling. As a result, selling pressure from experienced holders has eased.

Bitcoin LTH Supply Turns Positive Again

“This represents a positive shift in investor behavior, as it suggests that holding currently dominates over selling, even while Bitcoin continues to trade within its range.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/wVOIV8S47P

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 7, 2026

Darkfost described the shift as constructive for Bitcoin’s structure. Historically, similar changes have appeared before stronger price action. Still, current market conditions remain mixed, as demand stays soft and leverage continues to fall.

Moreover, the data suggests that long-term investors still control their positions with confidence. The realized price for this group continues to rise and remains below the spot price. This gap shows many long-term holders still sit in profit, indicating forced selling has not taken hold.

Meanwhile, the market has stayed range-bound while this trend has improved. This combination often signals patience rather than panic. If the Bitcoin LTH supply continues to rise, the market could build a firmer base for a move, especially as long-term conviction replaces short-term distribution.

Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Face Growing Pressure

Amidst the Bitcoin LTH supply turning positive, short-term holders remain under the heaviest pressure in the current market cycle. Analyst Drakfrost has said investors who bought within six months now hold an average cost basis near $85,400. As a result, this cohort sits on an average of unrealized losses of about 19.4%, which keeps selling pressure active across the market. 

Weaker holders often sell under pressure, which adds sharper swings to the market. Consequently, those exits can fuel erratic price action and deepen capitulation. Historically, STH losses above 25% have occurred near the early stages of market bottoms. These periods rarely look calm, as volatility usually rises before stronger hands regain control. 

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin was trading in a downtrend, mirroring the broader market downturn. This latest pullback follows the brief rally witnessed at the start of the week, whereby the asset traded slightly below the $70K mark. The price is currently hovering around $68,260, down by over 2% over the last 24 hours. Moreover, its market cap and trading volume have declined to $1.36 trillion and $32 billion, respectively.