Bitwise CIO Says Bitcoin’s $1M Target May Be More Realistic Than It Looks

Highlights:

• Bitwise CIO says BTC’s $1 million target may not be unrealistic anymore.
• He argues that many analysts use outdated valuation methods and ignore market growth.
• Hougan sees Bitcoin gaining store-of-value share as it competes more with gold.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, has renewed one of Bitcoin’s boldest long-term predictions, suggesting $1 million per coin may be more realistic than it seems. In his latest memo, Hougan said many valuation models rely on “static math” and fail to consider how much the market could grow over time. A seven-figure Bitcoin price still sounds huge, especially since it would mean roughly a 14 times jump from current levels. Hougan admitted the idea once sounded surprising even to him, but he now believes it could happen.

Bitwise’s Hougan Explains Bitcoin’s Long-Term Valuation

Hougan’s case starts with Bitcoin’s role as a store-of-value asset. He sees Bitcoin as a growing digital alternative to gold, not something meant to replace everyday payment systems. In his view, investors hold both assets for a similar reason: to preserve value over time. He estimates the global store-of-value market at just under $38 trillion today, with gold making up about $36 trillion and Bitcoin around $1.4 trillion. That means Bitcoin still accounts for less than 4% of the market, which is why a $1 million price target still looks far away at current levels.

JUST IN: $15 billion asset manager Bitwise publishes report titled "How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million" 👀

"…the global “store of value” market will be ~$121 trillion in 10 years…bitcoin only needs to take 17% of the market to be worth $1 million a coin." 🚀 pic.twitter.com/xETtCf9SFx

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) March 10, 2026

Hougan described Bitcoin as a rising store-of-value asset, similar to gold. He explained that valuing it can be done in three steps. First, estimate the total size of the store-of-value market. Next, decide how much of that market Bitcoin could capture. Finally, divide that number by the fixed supply of 21 million coins. He pointed to gold’s long-term growth as an example of how the market can expand. In 2004, gold was valued at about $2.5 trillion, shortly after the first U.S. gold exchange-traded fund launched. Today, its value has grown to nearly $40 trillion.

Institutional Demand Could Support Bitcoin’s Growth

Institutional adoption is a key part of Hougan’s thesis. He highlighted the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs as an important step. Large asset managers, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds have started putting money into Bitcoin. Professional investors have raised their allocations from around 1% to closer to 5%. These moves increase demand on a supply that is capped at 21 million coins.

Hougan predicts that the store-of-value market could reach roughly $121 trillion within the next decade if historical growth patterns persist. He indicated that, under such conditions, Bitcoin would need to capture around 17% of the market to approach $1,000,000 per coin. Bitwise CIO also noted that this projection depends on several key assumptions. The market would have to continue expanding, and Bitcoin would need to increase its market share.

Market Sentiment Turns Positive for Bitcoin

Market reaction has been noticeable in both price and sentiment. Bitcoin traded around $70,250, rising nearly 2% over the previous 24 hours. Social media sentiment turned more positive as the price climbed above $70,000 on Tuesday.

🤑 Bitcoin sentiment has jumped back into FOMO territory after its market value exceeded $70K Tuesday. Across X, Reddit, Telegram, and other crypto-related discussions, the crowd is encouraged by Trump's comments that the war may soon end, and oil prices reversing course. pic.twitter.com/S21cXOUM0F

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 10, 2026

The boost followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments that the war with Iran could be ending. Santiment reported that positive discussions on X, Reddit, Telegram, and other crypto platforms have steadily increased since Monday. They said uncertainty often drives investors to alternative assets, and crypto reacts quickly because it trades globally.

Tensions in the Middle East rose last month after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation. Trump said on Monday, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” but later warned that a slowing oil supply could trigger more U.S. military action.