Bitcoin Price Rebounds Amid Middle East War, But $60K Breakdown Risk Remains

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is showing resilience, but is facing pressure by the hour
• Continued weakness could send Bitcoin to prices under $60k
• Bitcoin’s short-term direction is dependent on events in the Middle East 

Bitcoin (BTC) is in the green, after a strong rebound just ahead of the London open. When writing, Bitcoin was trading at $68,195.34, up by 3.38% in the day. Bitcoin trading volumes are also on the rise, up by 39.71% to stand at $54.95 billion in the day. This rebound is an indicator of renewed confidence in risk-on assets after US stocks shrugged off the ongoing war to rally on Monday’s open. 

There were strong expectations that the stock markets would open in the red on Monday, but the opposite happened. This followed Bitcoin’s own trajectory on Saturday, when it rallied despite the war escalating. With volumes now rising alongside prices, the odds are high that capital will continue to flow into Bitcoin in the short to medium term. Several factors support capital flow into Bitcoin in the short term.

Price Action in a Conflict Situation Hints at Bitcoin Bottom

One of them is that investors are likely to get more conviction that the Bitcoin bottom is in. Bitcoin has been in a sustained bear market since 2025. There have been growing fears that this bear market could continue for the remainder of 2026. However, now that the Bitcoin price is rebounding amid a major war in the Middle East, investors are likely convinced it is trading at the bottom. 

This could trigger FOMO buying in the future, especially because Bitcoin is, at its core, an alternative asset. It is supposed to offer protection against volatility in the stock markets while also providing a mix of high returns and capital safety similar to that of gold. As such, showing upside momentum amid active war could signal that Bitcoin is assuming its true role in the global financial system.

Escalation of Tensions In the Middle East Could Weaken Bitcoin

However, like all other assets, there is a risk that the Bitcoin rebound may be short-lived. Bitcoin has been trading in tandem with the US stock markets. As such, the brief rally Bitcoin has witnessed over the last 24 hours may reflect the strong open for US stocks on Monday, March 2. This is changing, though, especially after news that the US embassy in Saudi Arabia had come under a drone attack. The attack, and the attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, could trigger medium-term weakness in the global economy. This could negatively affect stocks, and by extension, Bitcoin.

Two drones have hit the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, causing a small fire and minor damage. Meanwhile, the US State Department has ordered the departure of its non-emergency government employees from Jordan, Iraq, and Bahrain. pic.twitter.com/ROp3CqAZlb

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) March 3, 2026

A Rate Cut In the US Could Trigger a Bitcoin Price Rebound

A silver lining for Bitcoin amid the ongoing chaos is that if the war threatens markets further, the US could cut interest rates. The markets were not expecting any rate cuts in 2026, but if the war forces one, risk-on assets would rally across the board. For Bitcoin, which is already showing signs of bottoming out, the odds are high that a rate cut could send it to new highs in the short- to medium-term.

Dollar strength right now…

Two forces are lining up.

First, default risk-off flow.

When geopolitics heats up, money moves to liquidity. The USD is still the deepest pool in the world. That hasn’t changed.

Second, rate cut bets are quietly being pulled back.

June is now… pic.twitter.com/nrA1uPt9Vc

— Ken Chigbo (@realkenchigbo) March 3, 2026

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Trending Towards Liquidity Zone

After an attempt at a rebound, Bitcoin bears appear to be taking control in hourly trading. If the selloff deepens, the key level to watch is $65,396. A push through this support could see Bitcoin drop to prices as low as $60k in the short term.

On the other hand, if there is a rebound and the red hourly candle is reversed, Bitcoin could rebound to $69,424 in the short term. Which of these two scenarios will play out depends on how the war in the Middle East continues to take shape, and how major economies react. An escalation, such as the attack on the US embassy in Saudi Arabia, could send Bitcoin lower in the short term.