Bitcoin Mining Slowdown Could Lead to Price Rally, Says VanEck

Highlights:

• VanEck said low hashrate often leads to stronger Bitcoin gains.
• Analysts said only miners with cheap electricity can stay profitable.
• VanEck said digital asset treasuries may buy Bitcoin using share sale money.

Bitcoin mining has slowed down recently, which could show that the market may recover soon. VanEck released a report on Monday called “Mid-December 2025 ChainCheck”. The analysts said Bitcoin has often posted gains after mining activity falls.

Hashrate Drops Signal Potential Gains for Bitcoin

Since 2014, 90-day returns for bitcoin were positive 65% of the time when the network’s hashrate went down. On the other hand, when the hashrate increased, positive returns happened only 54% of the time. This shows that periods of lower mining activity can sometimes be positive for the market. “Some empirical evidence suggests drops in hashrate can be bullish for long-term holders,” VanEck analysts said. They explained that this is a “contrarian signal,” which happens when weaker miners leave the network under financial stress.

🚨 ICYMI: #VanEck highlights miner capitulation as a possible #Bitcoin bottom. Hashrate fell 4% in 30 days, the sharpest drop since April 2024.

Historically, similar declines have led to higher prices 65% of the time over the next 90 days. pic.twitter.com/y6Nw0x7jeJ

— Coin Edition: Your Crypto News Edge ️ (@CoinEdition) December 23, 2025

Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% by December 15, which is the largest monthly decline since April last year. VanEck said that when this low hashrate continues for longer periods, forward returns tend to happen more often and with stronger gains.

Mining has become harder because profits have fallen. Breakeven electricity costs for miners using rigs like the Antminer S19 XP fell from $0.12 per kilowatt-hour last December to around $0.077 by mid-December 2025. This means only miners with cheaper electricity can stay profitable. Other miners may stop mining, which further reduces the network’s hashrate.

Institutional Buying Rises as State-Backed Bitcoin Mining Expands

While miners face pressure, institutional investors are buying more Bitcoin. VanEck analysts said digital asset treasuries, or DATs, bought about 42,000 BTC from mid-November to mid-December. This was a 4% increase from the previous month. Total DAT holdings rose to around 1.09 million BTC.

VanEck noted this was the largest monthly purchase since mid-July to mid-August, when treasuries added over 128,000 BTC. The report said that in the future, many DATs may change their strategies. They could move away from common stock issuance and instead fund BTC purchases with proceeds from preference share sales.

Even with short-term challenges, state-backed mining is expanding. VanEck said 13 countries now support bitcoin mining in some way. These include Russia, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, UAE, Oman, and Japan. Analysts noted that miner capitulation often marks periods of market consolidation, which usually come before broader recoveries. K33 also said that selling pressure from long-term holders may be nearing its limits after years of steady distribution.

Bitcoin itself remains volatile. It fell to around $81,000 on November 21, after reaching its all-time high of $126,080 a month earlier. At the time of writing, it was trading at $87,519, down 2% in 24 hours. Recently, Citi predicted that Bitcoin could reach $143,000 and Ethereum $4,304 as investor interest grows. Analysts noted that easing regulations and increasing institutional participation are supporting the growth of digital assets.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $2.6 trillion Citi says Bitcoin could hit $189,000 in the next 12 months 🚀 pic.twitter.com/CgGEZ1XKB1

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 19, 2025