Bitcoin Price Prediction: Confluence of Political Forces Could Send BTC to $130K Soon

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is consolidating between $125,178 and $122,620
• Rally through the $125,178 resistance, send Bitcoin to $130k soon
• US government shutdown and events in Japan likely to send Bitcoin to $130k

Bitcoin (BTC) is in the green today, sustaining the momentum that has seen it rally 17% in the last 7 days. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has gained marginally by 0.69% to trade at $124,024. However, Bitcoin trading volumes have dropped during the day. In the last 24 hours, they are down by 10.43% to stand at $55.81 billion in the day.

A drop in volume on a day when Bitcoin is making negligible gains is likely a bullish signal. That’s because it means that if the price is showing weakness, the average Bitcoin holder is not looking to liquidate their positions. This, by extension, means the amount of Bitcoin available for trading on exchanges is shrinking. This could trigger a price rally in the short to medium term due to the economic laws of supply and demand. However, outside of evident holder confidence, there are a couple of other factors that support a Bitcoin price rally in the short term. 

US Government Shutdown Makes Bitcoin Attractive to Investors

One of them is the US government shutdown. The shutdown is dragging on as Democrats and Republicans fail to agree on the way forward in funding the budget. The result is that the market is facing uncertainty that is increasingly pushing capital into safe havens like Gold and non-correlated assets like cryptocurrencies.

BTC, Gold Jump as Shutdown Delays Data, Fuels Rate-Cut Bets: BOOM https://t.co/cywdQ5OyAm via @coindeskñ

— Ana Alvarado (@anasoffia89) October 6, 2025

Some analysts are calling the ongoing price action the debasement trade. That’s because it is a scenario where both gold and Bitcoin are going up together while the US dollar goes down. As long as the government shutdown drags on, the odds are high that the price of Bitcoin will keep going up. In the very short term, a continuation of the government shutdown could see Bitcoin rally to around $130k. 

Expectations of Japanese Fiscal Stimulus Could Send Bitcoin Price Higher

The rising bullish sentiment around Bitcoin is also supported by events happening in Japan. Japan is one of the most important economies in the world, and in the past, it played a role in triggering Bitcoin rallies. The latest coming from Japan is the election of Sanae Takaichi as the ruling party’s leader. This has spurred excitement that a big fiscal stimulus could be in the works in Japan.

Stimulus packages tend to push liquidity into high-risk risk high-return aspects of the markets, such as cryptocurrencies. As such, investors are expecting that Bitcoin could be hit with a liquidity injection that could send it to new highs in the foreseeable future. 

A female national leader in Japan before the USA. But remember folks, the narrative from some Americans is that Japan is sexist 😉
Sanae Takaichi Elected Japan LDP President, Poised to Be New Prime Minister https://t.co/R5XV9W5p6L

— Greg Atkinson (@GregAtkinson_jp) October 4, 2025

Bitcoin ETFs Continue to Record Strong Inflows

When all this is happening, capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow, signalling strengthening institutional confidence. In the past week, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs hit a high of $3.25 billion. As inflows into Bitcoin grow, the odds are high that the price will continue to see an upside push.

The rising positive sentiment around Bitcoin is also evident in the fact that Bitcoin futures interest has recently risen sharply. This is an indicator that short positions are coming under pressure and that a short squeeze could follow in the short term. Such a squeeze could trigger a Bitcoin rally to $130k or more short term.

💰 US spot #Bitcoin ETFs just recorded $3.2B inflows last week — the second-best week ever.

Even Ethereum ETFs pulled in $1.3B. Institutions are clearly not done buying. How long before retail catches up? 👀 pic.twitter.com/fwM8aBZvSK

— Crypto Tom (@e_coiny) October 6, 2025

Technical Analysis – Bulls Taking Control Even as Bitcoin Price Consolidates

Bitcoin is currently consolidating between the $125,178 resistance and $122,620 support. However, the overall bias is up, and Bitcoin is trending towards the $125,178 resistance. If Bitcoin bulls are strong enough to push the price of Bitcoin through the $125,178 resistance, then a rally to $130k could follow.

On the other hand, if bears take control and push Bitcoin through the $122,620 support, then a correction to $119,747 could follow. Of these two scenarios, a rally to $130k is more likely due to a confluence of positive macro factors.