Bitcoin Price Prediction – Why BTC Could Be Headed to $58K

Highlights:

• Bitcoin monthly chart is increasingly looking like 2018 and 2021
• Analysts point out that retail is not a buying spot, which dampens hopes of a rally
• Charts point to a potential drop to $58k within the year 

The value of Bitcoin has dropped 2.12% intra-day, putting its trading value at $84,107. Alongside the price dip, trading volumes have dropped by 30% to $25.58 billion. This illustrates that many investors are avoiding the market and awaiting some clarity. Investors taking a cautious approach towards Bitcoin is not without basis. 

Investor Caution on Bitcoin Amid Changing Market Dynamics

Some Bitcoin bulls have claimed that the current cycle is far from over because retail investors are not in sight. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, seems to challenge this logic and argues that it is far from reality.

Ju recently took to X to try to dismantle the narrative where defenders of the Bitcoin cycle assume that retail money is yet to enter the market. He emphasizes that retail is participating but is no longer directly onchain but rather through BTC ETFs.

Let me respond to a few counterarguments:

1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metrics

Retail is likely entering through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing…

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 19, 2025

This behavioral change from investors has resulted in a lower realized cap than would have been the case had there been an inflow of funds straight to exchange deposit wallets. Binance analysts noticed this trend for the first time in October 2024.

They indicated that a large portion of ETF inflows probably came from retail investors moving their holdings from traditional wallets to venture funds with enhanced regulatory safeguards. In Ju’s words, there are indicators available that suggest no new liquidity will support the market. 

Market Sentiment Turning Bearish on BTC

Data on market sentiment support Ju’s claims and those of like-minded analysts. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index recently fell to a “Fear” score of 31 from a neutral 49. Other metrics, including the popularity of apps within the crypto space and Google search trends, indicate the shift in sentiment.

The global search score for “crypto” was 100 from January 19 to 25 this year, corresponding to Bitcoin hitting an all-time price of $109,000. Retail interest, however, has declined post that milestone, with searches now reduced by nearly 62%.

Trump Pledges to Make the U.S. a Bitcoin Superpower

That said, there is hope for a Bitcoin rally once there is clarity in the macro environment. The underlying regulatory climate for Bitcoin is getting better. President Donald Trump has pledged to transform the U.S. into the undisputed Bitcoin superpower and the crypto capital of the world.

He made these remarks in a pre-recorded address to the Blockworks Digital Assets Summit in New York City. Trump has openly disapproved of his predecessor’s regulatory policies. He promised to focus on attracting innovation and investment in digital assets. The president further stated that Bitcoin-backed stablecoins could help the United States dollar dominate. 

🚨 “We will make America the undisputed #Bitcoin superpower and crypto capital of the world” —President Trump 👑
pic.twitter.com/gbI8HQ98M6

— Sumit Kapoor (@moneygurusumit) March 20, 2025

Steps have already been taken concerning crypto policy under Trump’s administration. The White House hosted the first Digital Asset Summit two weeks ago, where industry leaders and policymakers convened. The summit was focused on strategizing the future of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology and discussing how best to foster it through regulation. This is a big deal as it could trigger retail and institutional money inflow once prices rebound.

Technical Analysis – BTC Monthly Chart Similar to Early Bear Cycles

Bitcoin is sending bearish signals on the monthly charts, similar to its price action in early bear cycles. The long red candle in February invalidated the bull candle from January. March has also shown bull weakness, with bears increasingly taking control.

This could cause Bitcoin’s price to drop even further, with the first major support being $58,660. With the broader financial markets increasingly bearish, the odds of BTC dropping to the $58k support level are high.