Bitcoin ETFs’ AUM Will Overtake Gold ETFs by Year-End, Says Nate Geraci

Highlights:

• Nate Geraci predicts spot BTC ETFs could surpass Gold ETFs by year-end.
• Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $100 billion in assets, with rising inflows in November and December. 
• Strong demand and exchange outflows suggest potential Bitcoin supply squeeze, predicts 10x Research.

Crypto expert and ETF Store President Nate Geraci predicted that spot Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) might surpass Gold ETFs by year-end. Last week, BTC ETFs surpassed $100 billion in assets under management (AMU). Data also reveals that while Bitcoin ETF inflows rose in November and December, Gold ETFs experienced outflows for the first time in six months. As a result, the gap between the two is rapidly narrowing.

Not ready to call it, but I'm just telling you all…

It's *possible* that spot btc ETF assets surpass physical gold ETF assets before year-end.

Think will depend on price of btc vs gold over next 2+ weeks.

Physical gold ETFs launched *20yrs* ago.

Would be astounding.

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) December 14, 2024

Geraci highlighted that his prediction largely depends on the performance of Bitcoin and gold prices in the coming weeks. He also noted that physical gold ETFs debuted two decades ago, making this development in Bitcoin ETFs “astounding.” BlackRock’s iShares BTC ETF (IBIT) attracted over $4 billion since Thanksgiving. This makes it the second-best Bitcoin ETF launch of 2024. On Friday, IBIT saw an additional $393 million in inflows. Its total inflows are now close to $36 billion.

Bitcoin Supply Tightens as 124K BTC Exits Exchanges: 10x Research

In a recent post on X, 10x Research predicted a potential Bitcoin supply squeeze. This could happen if current outflow trends continue along with strong demand. The analysis firm highlighted that crypto exchanges have seen a net outflow of 124,000 BTC in the past 30 days.

Coinbase, which holds the largest BTC reserves, saw an outflow of 72,000 BTC. This is nearly 10% of its total holdings, reducing its balance to 748,000 BTC. Binance experienced outflows of 29,000 BTC, leaving its balance at 570,000 BTC. Gemini, OKX, and Kraken also reported significant outflows during this period. In contrast, Bitfinex saw an inflow of 8,500 BTC.

#Bitcoin Supply Crunch – Part 1: Exchanges Balances Signal Potential Price Squeeze

👇1-8) There is a growing narrative of tightening Bitcoin supply, particularly as Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy continue accumulating, the available supply of Bitcoin dwindles, setting the stage… pic.twitter.com/oM6U7srZRq

— 10x Research (@10x_Research) December 14, 2024

Bitcoin ETFs Could Push BTC Ahead of Gold in Market Cap

Bitwise Asset Management, a major crypto ETF issuer, published a report on December 10 titled “10 Crypto Predictions for 2025.” The firm predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200,000. According to Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research, and Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitcoin ETFs could significantly drive the price to this level. Looking further ahead, Bitwise predicts that by 2029, Bitcoin will surpass the $18 trillion gold market and exceed $1 million per Bitcoin.

In a detailed tweet, Balaji Srinivasan, former Coinbase CTO, shared why he believes Bitcoin will outperform gold. Though he didn’t provide a timeline, his argument suggests he expects BTC to reach this milestone soon.

Think about the logistics.

To sell $10M in gold, you need to securely transport bricks across borders to a physical gold exchange.

But to sell $10M in digital gold, you just click a button to instantly find a willing buyer anywhere in the world.

Or a set of buyers, as you can… pic.twitter.com/N0fpFGCT1Q

— Balaji (@balajis) December 11, 2024

On Dec. 5, Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Investment, expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s future, even post-$100,000. She believes Bitcoin is “a much bigger idea than gold.”

Indeed, @ARKInvest believes that bitcoin is a much bigger idea than gold!

— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) December 5, 2024

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading 1.11% higher at $101,349. Its market cap has surpassed $2 trillion. According to Coinglass data, the 24-hour liquidations total $178 million, with short liquidations reaching $76 million.